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dc.creatorGil-Alana, L.A. (Luis A.)-
dc.creatorMoreno, A. (Antonio)-
dc.creatorPérez-de-Gracia, F. (Fernando)-
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-07T10:37:48Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-07T10:37:48Z-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.citationGil-Alana, L.A. (Luis A.); Moreno, A. (Antonio); Pérez-de-Gracia, F. (Fernando). "Time Series". En . , 2011,es
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10171/23023-
dc.description.abstractThis paper first shows that survey-based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in U.S. quarterly inflation out-of-sample prediction and that the term structure of survey-based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey-based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the recent financial crisis.es_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
dc.subjectMaterias Investigacion::Economía y Empresaes_ES
dc.subjectInflation Forecastinges_ES
dc.subjectSurvey-Based expectationses_ES
dc.subjectDisaggregationes_ES
dc.subjectARIMA Modelses_ES
dc.subjectLong Memory Time Serieses_ES
dc.titleTime Serieses_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES

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