Guasch-Ferré M, Bulló M, Costa B, Martínez-Gonzalez MA, Ibarrola-Jurado N, Estruch R, et al. A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly spanish mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. PLoS One. 2012;7(3):e33437.
Introduction: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean
population at high cardiovascular risk.
Materials and Methods: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres
of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk
factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol
consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We
tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish
Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve
Results: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals
developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of $6 had sensitivity of 72.2%,
and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample
(sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation
and validation samples.
Discussion: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those
individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of
the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the