Celico, A. (Andrea)

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    Will the real populists please stand up? A machine learning index of party populism
    (Elsevier, 2024) Rodríguez-Carreño, I. (Ignacio); Celico, A. (Andrea); Rode, M. (Martin)
    The existing literature on populism has seen numerous attempts to empirically quantify this somewhat ambiguous concept. Despite notable advances, continuous measures of populism with a clear theoretical background and a considerable coverage are still hard to come by. This paper proposes a novel approach to measuring party populism by combining several different expert-surveys via supervised machine learning techniques. Employing the random forest regression algorithm, we greatly expand the geographical and temporal coverage of two well-known populism indicators, which are based on the discursive and the ideational approach, respectively. The resulting multidimensional measures capture party-level populism on a continuous 0–10 scale, covering 1920 parties in 169 countries from 1970 to 2019. Our measures accurately replicate both definitions of populism, although the indicators may be more suitable for predicting populist outcomes in Western countries, as compared to non-Western ones.
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    Can we all be Denmark? The role of civic attitudes in welfare state reforms
    (Springer, 2023) Celico, A. (Andrea); Rode, M. (Martin)
    Research has demonstrated the economic effectiveness of welfare state reforms that follow the Danish flexicurity model, broadly specifying the combination of highly flexible labor market policies and generous protection schemes. Notwithstanding, it has also been argued that large and generous welfare states may erode civic attitudes, defined here as people’s willingness to cheat on taxes and claim transfers to which they are not entitled. Combining data from all available waves of the World Values Survey and the European Values Study with a self-constructed flexicurity index, this paper finds that welfare state reforms involving a combination of higher benefits, lower labor market regulations, and active labor market policies are not significantly associated with an erosion of civic attitudes.