Uncertainy’s indices assessment for calibrated energy models

Abstract

Building Energy Models (BEMs) are a key element of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), and they are at the basis of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs). The main goal of BEMs is to provide information for building stakeholders; they can be a powerful market tool to increase demand for energy efficiency solutions in buildings without affecting the comfort of users, as well as providing other benefits. The next generation of BEMs should value buildings in a holistic and cost-effective manner across several complementary dimensions: envelope performances, system performances, and controlling the ability of buildings to offer flexible services to the grid by optimizing energy consumption, distributed generation, and storage. SABINA is a European project that aims to look for flexibility to the grid, targeting the most economic source possible: existing thermal inertia in buildings. In doing so, SABINA works with a new generation of BEMs that tend to mimic the thermal behavior of real buildings and therefore requires an accurate methodology to choose the model that complies with the requirements of the system. This paper details our novel extensive research on which statistical indices should be chosen in order to identify the best model offered by the calibration process developed by Fernandez et al. in a previous paper and therefore is a continuation of that work.