Very short-term load forecaster based on a neural network technique for smart grid control

Abstract

Electrical load forecasting plays a crucial role in the proper scheduling and operation of power systems. To ensure the stability of the electrical network, it is necessary to balance energy generation and demand. Hence, different very short-term load forecast technologies are being designed to improve the efficiency of current control strategies. This paper proposes a new forecaster based on artificial intelligence, specifically on a recurrent neural network topology, trained with a Levenberg–Marquardt learning algorithm. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed for determining the optimal input vector, structure and the optimal database length. In this case, the developed tool provides information about the energy demand for the next 15 min. The accuracy of the forecaster was validated by analysing the typical error metrics of sample days from the training and validation databases. The deviation between actual and predicted demand was lower than 0.5% in 97% of the days analysed during the validation phase. Moreover, while the root mean square error was 0.07 MW, the mean absolute error was 0.05 MW. The results suggest that the forecaster’s accuracy is considered sufficient for installation in smart grids or other power systems and for predicting future energy demand at the chosen sites.