Forecasting levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D based on dietary intake, lifestyle and personal determinants in a sample of Southern Europeans
Keywords: 
Lifestyle
Predictive model
Predictors
Vitamin D
Issue Date: 
2023
Publisher: 
Cambridge University Press
ISSN: 
0007-1145
Note: 
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence
Citation: 
Valer-Martínez, A. (Ana); Sayon-Orea, C. (Carmen); Martínez-Hernández, J.A. (J. Alfredo); et al. "Forecasting levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D based on dietary intake, lifestyle and personal determinants in a sample of Southern Europeans". British Journal of Nutrition. 130 (10), 2023, 1814 - 1822
Abstract
Vitamin D is an essential nutrient to be consumed in the habitual dietary intake, whose deficiency is associated with various disturbances. This study represents a validation of vitamin D status estimation using a semi-quantitative FFQ, together with data from additional physical activity and lifestyle questionnaires. This information was combined to forecast the serum vitamin D status. Different statistical methods were applied to estimate the vitamin D status using predictors based on diet and lifestyle. Serum vitamin D was predicted using linear regression (with leave-one-out cross-validation) and random forest models. Intraclass correlation coefficients, Lin's agreement coefficients, Bland-Altman plots and other methods were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted v. observed serum values. Data were collected in Spain. A total of 220 healthy volunteers aged between 18 and 78 years were included in this study. They completed validated questionnaires and agreed to provide blood samples to measure serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels. The common final predictors in both models were age, sex, sunlight exposure, vitamin D dietary intake (as assessed by the FFQ), BMI, time spent walking, physical activity and skin reaction after sun exposure. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the prediction was 0·60 (95 % CI: 0·52, 0·67; P < 0·001) using the random forest model. The magnitude of the correlation was moderate, which means that our estimation could be useful in future epidemiological studies to establish a link between the predicted 25(OH)D values and the occurrence of several clinical outcomes in larger cohorts.

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